US-phoria or EU-phoria?
Even if Europe tried, it could not have gotten a President more attached to Europe than President Joe Biden. (I need to note at this point that Joe Biden also spent his honeymoon at Lake Balaton in Hungary at the invitation of Tom Lantos, the only Holocaust survivor to become member of the US Congress.) Besides his Irish roots, he has a career spanning decades, allowing most European leaders to claim that they know him personally.
The way yesterday's inauguration resonated with leaders in Europe and beyond can easily be coined US-phoria. Hopes are alive for a solid and predictable cooperation with the United States and the 'good students' are already claiming their reward, trying to overshadow the 'bad students' who seemingly got along with the Trump administration.
And now they are looking to their old ally as a messiah to repair all that they think has gone wrong over the past years. But what does the incoming US President and his Administration have in store for Europe for the next 4 years? Is there really a turning back and would we really want that anyway?
Quick recap
Before the Obama administration left office, Europe tended to believe in an unbreakable political and economic transatlantic bond (you can think about the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and NATO). In the final years of the Obama Presidency, the US was already struggling to maintain its superpower status in an increasingly multipolar world. Several foreign policy issues were on the table, such as Libya, Syria, fighting ISIS, the Iran agreement or the Paris Climate Agreement. At this point in time we were already after the Brexit referendum that took place in June 2016. But from a US perspective the 'old continent' only started gaining prominence and focus again a few years earlier due to the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014. So, what will happen now to Europe?
EU and US priorities
I think we should take a few steps back and look at the place and capacity of this (and basically any) new administration realistically. We can also use the European Union as an example - not to compare the EU to a United States of Europe, but to allow for juxtaposing two administrations representing hundreds of millions of people with strictly different mechanisms.
Whenever a new leadership takes office at the European Commission, the President-elect puts forward her vision for the next 5 years, detailing and explaining upcoming policy proposals, strategic objectives, visions. Working for the benefit of 450 million EU citizens and more people beyond the EU's border is an overwhelming task - especially when the Treaties clearly set the boundaries as to how far you can reach, or in which situations further authorisation from Member States is needed. The European Union has always been careful to articulate its main priorities focusing on the EU as a whole, Member States, candidate and potential candidate countries, and the rest of the world - cooperation with the African Union appears to have a special status now, as well as helping developing countries in Africa and beyond. In terms of external relations, trade agreements also seem to enjoy priority in order to help cement the leading role of a geopolitical Commission.
When it comes to the United States, the President will also probably look at the country's vicinity first: outlining policies to improve the lives of 300 million Americans, reversing certain Executive orders signed by the former President (for instance on immigration and the climate), trying to link back to the achievements of the Obama-Biden tandem that was in office for 2 terms. Relations are frosty with its southern and northern neighbours as well, not least since building a wall was a constant topic for 4 years and Justin Trudeau probably felt more at ease with a Democrat. The US also needs to redefine its global position in a changed world and adapt to old-new alliances. It will probably be firmly fixated on Russia and China, as well as the Middle East - and we have not even mentioned relations with South America and Africa yet.
What's ahead?
Of course, the US Presidential system allows for taking more swift and unilateral (aka executive) decisions than the EU system of decision-making. But with so many issues on the table, it remains to be seen how much of the resources can be devoted to a continent where there is no hunger, countries are not actually at war with one another and they do not pose a threat to US interests.
European leaders already welcomed back the US to the mainstream, like-minded clubhouse, as President Biden re-joined the Paris Climate Agreement. But this is an international agreement, where the odd-one-out was the United States for leaving it. With the issue of climate change almost overshadowed by the Covid crisis and its aftermath, the new administration will most likely put its full weight behind tackling these issues globally, while trying to strengthen the USA's place in the world once again.
And I think this shows the kind of EU-US relations we can expect: the EU in general, and most of Europe will have gained a valuable supporter on the world stage. The US will side with Europe on many issues (and vice versa) and where the EU is uncertain, the US will set a course that can be followed. But resources are limited on both sides.
As much as EU leaders wish they would get help from the US on several issues, the Biden Presidency has many areas to watch out for - domestically and globally alike. But this should not be an issue: Europe is in the midst of developing its 'strategic autonomy' doctrine that will help decrease its dependency on other (partner)s. Having the US as a trusted ally in this process is a victory - and it will be an even bigger victory, when European leaders realise that not going back to the modus vivendi of pre-2016 is probably the best thing that could have happened to the 'European project'.