2x2 reasons why (not) series
The EU Budget
Why this is (not) a victory for the European Union as a whole
An agreement on the future EU budget is finally in place with unanimous agreement. This puts an end to a process that lasted over 2.5 years, since the European Commission put forward its first proposal in May 2018. Over the past years, unexpected events have happened, prompting updates and revamps so that the new EU budget can respond to today's numerous challenges, such as combatting the on-going pandemic, dealing with the aftermath of Brexit and Covid-19, as well as preparing for and implementing the green and digital transitions, just to name a few. However, agreeing on the next EU budget is not only a number-crunching exercise, where an unanimous agreement is expected sooner or later - I think the real question lies in asking the 'impossible': what would have happened without an agreement? And is this even a good one...?
Every single time the EU budget is prepared and discussed on all levels for the next 7 years, we hear the same mantras: 'Europe is at cross-roads', 'Europe would fail if there was no budget', 'European unity would suffer', etc. But this time it was something else…
Why this is a victory for the European Union as a whole
What is for certain is that the current MFF negotiations were one of the most crucial and complicated ones - ever. And not (only) because it is about the money to be spent between 2021-2027 or because it now includes novel elements, like NextGenerationEU and proposals for own resources (how more revenue can be generated for the EU budget besides, for instance, Member State contributions). But because the EU is in the endgame of Brexit (deal or no deal, but 1 Member State will have left the EU before the first day of next year), actual lives of people are at stake in Europe and all over the world (not only in financial terms, but also literally, as their own health are in danger as the pandemic drags on), not to mention the unpredictably grave economic, societal, financial and health consequences. In this context it is obvious, that no deal on the EU budget would have added oil to the fire, threatening not necessarily the very foundations of the European Union, but definitely opening up another an unnecessary battlefront between friends and partners. And we all know that recovering from a trench warfare and mending wounds is more timely and costly than coming to an agreement, even if it is a difficult and painful one.
The conditionality mechanism is in place that was originally included in the proposal way back in 2018. The efforts of the German Presidency and Chancellor Angela Merkel over the past few days and weeks ensures the successful conclusion of the 6-months-long premiership even amid these more than trying circumstances and this reserves a clear spot for 'Mutti' to take on the title of 'Queen of Europe'.
Of course unresolved issues remain on European level, such as Brexit or the distribution mechanism for the vaccines, once approved and available, but let us not be insatiable. This is the European Union, where victories, defeats, and disagreements alike need to be regarded at through the lenses of a community that strives for compromise among all members at all times, whenever and wherever possible.
Why this is not a victory for the European Union as a whole
And this is the downside of the results as well. The obligation to strive for compromise on issues cutting to the core of national sovereignty, such as foreign policy issues - or the MFF negotiations - already foreshadows that a final compromise would be (more often than not) a watered-down version of any original proposal. For instance, with the rule of law conditionality mechanism only entering into force after a ruling of the European Court of Justice on the matter, a certain amount of delay is already foreseen - although Vera Jourová (Vice President of the European Commission for Values and Transparency) signalled that there is a possibility for an expedited ruling process on the matter. On the other hand, Members of the European Parliament were already quite vocal about the fact, few days after the agreement, that a political declaration of the European Council cannot interpret legislation and, therefore, the rule of law conditionality mechanism would already enter into force on 1 January, 2021.
The agreed deal is a typical example of 'having your cake and eating it too'. All parties can save face and claim victory on all fronts, y compris the frugal countries and even the most ardent critics of the proposal agreed upon by the European Parliament in November 2020 following the political deal at a summit of Heads of State and Government in July 2020 (aka the European Council). This shows once again the price of unity: compromises. Sometimes with lower, at other times with higher price tags.
Conclusion
I remember back at university there was a course on negotiations and the concept of BATNA came up. For those of you who are wondering what that is, it stands for the Best Alternative To a Negotiated Agreement. In this context, I do not think there was a BATNA for the EU...and for the critics of the proposal? The budget for 2021-2027 is skewed in favour of countries most hit by the pandemic (for these purposes, this means the Southern countries). At the same time, in very general terms, it also ensures that countries in the Central and Eastern European region get more money than before. The question we need to rather ask is: was this compromise worth it?
There is an unanimous agreement on the EU budget with certain clauses in place that addresses pain points. Is it a typical EU-style agreement with compromises that means any tangible results will only be visible in a few years (if at all) ? Yes. Did it manage to keep the European family together and strengthen the foundations for overcoming (one of) the greatest challenges of our time? Yes.
The EU is not a perfect machinery, but it is best we have got. Historically, it is a miracle that it could be set up and it continues to be an important driving force in making Europe better and improving the lives of EU citizens. So, yes, this is an imperfect deal, allowing Europe to continue down a path that is sign-posted by difficulties. But let us be hopeful! Europe has always evolved in times of crises...and we are in the midst of one.